The Chicago Bears head to Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 3 of NFL action on Sunday afternoon. This is a matchup between last year’s first and worst teams as the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs host the Bears who haven’t won a game since last October.
Given that talent disparity, you might expect a big spread in NFL odds for this contest and you’d be absolutely right as betting lines have Kansas City pegged as a 13-point home favorite. Here are my best free Bears vs. Chiefs NFL picks for September 24.
Bears vs Chiefs odds
Bears vs Chiefs predictions
The Chicago Bears were the worst team in the NFL last year and those who were expecting a big turnaround this season have to be extremely disappointed. They’ve lost their first two games by double digits despite facing underwhelming Packers and Buccanneers squads.
Their offense ranks just 27th in the league in EPA/play and quarterback Justin Fields hasn’t taken the next step as a passer that many thought he would. His completion percentage sits at 60.6%, a whopping 11% lower than his expected completion percentage and that’s despite averaging just 4.5 yards per depth of target — the lowest number in the NFL.
The play of their defense might be even more concerning since they rank 29th in defensive EPA and have made Baker Mayfield and Jordan Love look like Patrick Mahomes. Now they face the real Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
The reigning NFL MVP had his numbers suppressed in Week 1 when his receivers dropped eight passes but they got their act together last Sunday as he completed 70.7% of his passes for 305 yards vs. the Jaguars. Despite rolling up almost 400 yards of offense in that contest, the Chiefs mustered just 17 points, which was due to poor efficiency at the goal line and penalties that stalled drives.
This is a get-right spot for Mahomes and the Chiefs offense against a woeful Bears defense that has a league-worst opponent pass efficiency rating of 118.3. That said, it’s really tough to lay this many points on a Chiefs team that has often disappointed as a big fave.
The Chiefs are just 3-8-1 against the spread in their previous 12 games at Arrowhead and since the start of last season and are just 1-5 ATS when favored by more than 10 points. While the Bears are just 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games, they hadn’t seen a spread larger than 8.5 points during that stretch.
I’m shying away from backing the Chiefs at -13 but I expect them to come fired up at home against a Bears team that looks to be in shambles. I’ll bet the reigning champs on the first-half spread which you can still get below a touchdown.
My best bet: Chiefs -6.5 in first half (-125 at DraftKings)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Bears vs Chiefs same-game parlay
Chiefs first half -6.5Justin Fields Over 169.5 passing yardsTravis Kelce Over 72.5 receiving yards
+475 at bet365
Even though Fields rarely looks downfield, he has still thrown for more than 210 yards in each of his first two games of the year. His passing yards total is way too low when you consider the negative game script that Chicago is expected to face.
Travis Kelce was limited to just 26 receiving yards in Week 2 but it was clear that the knee injury that sidelined him in Week 1 was still affecting him along with rust. He’s looked much healthier in practice this week, taking part in a full capacity in the mid-week training sessions without a sleeve or brace on his knee.
Despite being held below 30 yards last week, Kelce was targeted nine times while running just 26 routes. That usage rate indicates we’ll see a surge in his production moving forward.
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Bears vs Chiefs spread and Over/Under analysis
This has been one of the most bet games of the week, creating plenty of line movement. The original look-ahead line had the Chiefs pegged as 11.5-point favorites but that number was at -13 by Sunday night.
It ticked up to -13.5 before buyback on the Bears dropped it to -12.5 by Wednesday. However, that number has moved back to -13 at most books on Thursday morning.
This is one of the biggest “Pros vs. Joes” matchups of the week with the public backing the reigning champs at home while sharps are fading the Chiefs, who have struggled to cover as double-digit favorites over the last year.
The total has also seen plenty of movement with the O/U opening at 50 before dropping to 47.5.
